Once A Healthy Man On Life Support

There was a healthy man full of energy.  One day he was hit by a sickness that all can see would be the end of him.  All the friends came to him with their best medicines and nutrition to keep him alive.  Death had missed him but he is no longer able to survive on his own now.  He still needs to be provided life sustainment to barely avoid death. The Happy Dr. says this is the closest he will be to dying but will be back to full energy very soon once he wakes from this sickness.  The Grim Dr. though says he may actually need much longer to recover and require much therapy for a long time.  All the friends only pay heed to the Happy Dr. 

All his friends and neighbors can now see how great he will be once he recovers from this and that is all that can come to their mind, his recovery.  They go and a celebration is made.  Money was poured into a pot to set aside for this man to use again when he recovers.  They kept pouring into this pot more and more.

Everyone woke up from their slumber the next day following the celebration and were stricken with reality.  They all see through the Happy Dr’s claim and know this man will not recover as well and fast as claimed.  All signs were pointing for the worst.  They don’t know how much longer he will need life sustainment and be unable to perform daily activities.  They realize whenever he wakes again, which they all now see may not be as soon as they have wished, he will still need substantial sustainment to barely live and will never be the same again being able to live the way he did before.

Then they remember the money poured into a pot set aside for this man, which they see will not be best spent by someone in a state of barely living for who knows how long.  They quickly broke the pot and clawed back their money.

This man is Uncle Sam.  The life sustainment is the FEDs.  The pot is the stock market.

How Bad Can The Coronavirus Be?

Until we hit a point where it gets as bad as it can get for the world and economy with the Coronavirus, it’s not okay to get into stocks yet.  There will be many dead cat bounces from hungry retail investors just to be burned again because the reason for the spiral in the stock market is the hit it will cause the economy.  We are still uncovering how bad it can get for the economy and the end of it hasn’t come yet.  This is still a train wreck in progress.

How bad can it get in the US?

• ·       China model where they quarantine off entire cities.  They lock up entire buildings so people can’t go out.  That means the entire economic engine stops.  It becomes a ghost town.  People only stay in and they have no choice.
• ·       The government forces everything shut
• ·       Businesses shut down

What is likely to happen in the US?

• ·       Modified version of China
• ·       US government will not directly lock down a city or lock a building.  The US will ask companies to start cancelling events and do a lot of “advising” which companies for sake of public image will comply.  The US will ask businesses to shut and ask people to not go out.  When there is nothing to do and nowhere to go, people will just not go anywhere.  The hysteria created in people’s head will keep them in.
• ·       Stock markets can crash to levels unimaginable as in percentage wise.  I don’t think we will see it go down nominally as 2008, but in terms of percentage wise from its peak this year, it can outdo the Great Recession which was down over 50%. 
• ·       I predict DJIA can be as low as 12,000 – 13,000 points and the S&P 500 as low as 1,400 – 1,500.  The Coronavirus scare is the zombie apocalypse scenario.
• ·       The economic impact of the Coronavirus is more and more pointing to a nightmare scenario where we see ghost towns and frozen economic activity.  This is as bad as a credit crunch that led many companies towards a nosedive in 2008.  Right now cash flow concerns for corporations are a real danger for many companies.  Companies that are seeing their cash flow affected most by the Coronavirus are the ones to look out for.  This will sink stocks without a doubt, but at the same time, the government will come to the rescue.  The US government certainly sees the cash flow danger and will create financial rescue packages.

What conditions to look for to know it is the peak we are seeing? (this is when you want to get back in)

• ·       Test kits are in ample supply
• ·       Daily number of new cases stabilizes for the entire week
• ·       Daily number of new cases starts to go down after stabilizing in a range the week prior.
• ·       Vaccines are mass-produced
• ·       US government no longer advising cancellations and ceasing travel

Then the rosy future will appear and investors can start pricing that in.

Middle East Inferno

Today I read the Saudi’s are starting another oil price war.  This time will be different and I predict it will lead to a hot war.  The Middle East is already chaotic and hurting so they can’t take much more.  This will only exacerbate a breakdown of order in the Middle East and lead to a more intensive wide-scale war in the region to restore order. 

There is already a region-wide war ongoing.  Yemen and Saudi Arabia are already fighting.  Libya rebels, government and Turkey are already fighting.  Syria, Russia, US, Iran, and Turkey are already fighting.  Israel is fighting Iran already via Syria and proxy strikes.  Iran will continue attacking US interests via proxies as rocket strikes on US assets are still continuously happening in Iraq.  As everyone moves to protect their interests, they will increasingly use their militaries to achieve their goals since it doesn’t seem to be achievable at the negotiating table.

Saudis want OPEC + Russia to toe the line and there will be a push back.  Middle East nations will hurt and start aligning with Iran to counter what is to be seen as Saudi aggression.  I predict Iran with the help of Russian covert ops will use their proxy forces to strike Saudi Arabia to disrupt their oil production and lead to increases in the price of oil.  This price war isn’t like the past price wars they have engaged in.  Tensions are already high.  Coronavirus is causing economic strains.  Conflicts are already in place. Every action has a counteraction to balance it out.

The Coronavirus Is EDD (Extra Deadly Dangerous) For The World

This Coronavirus can have catastrophic effects on the world as we know it if it doesn’t die down by March or April.  As long as the Coronavirus is ongoing, it will keep the world at a halt, that is unless we learn everything about this virus.  The moment we do, it will set us free and it will be life as know it again.  This doesn’t mean know its statistical effects like infection and kill rate.  We need to know how this virus lives and dies and how long, all the characteristics.  It’s Certainty that will solve the Coronavirus dilemma we currently have. 

If it shows that the virus can survive very well in all conditions even in hotter weather, then the world will certainly crash and crash to epic proportions because they will picture in their minds of how the world will come to a halt indefinitely.  Of course, that won’t be the case because it’s only a matter of time before we learn everything about this Coronavirus and start to accept it.

If the Coronavirus is shown to have the same pattern as the flu where its survivability is poor during hotter weather, which is the likely case, then this is the certainty that has been the key to move forward.  It will be another chapter in the dust bin of history.  This is the best-case scenario but can still send the world as we know it into a tailspin. 

There is this strong possibility of the world spiraling towards a dark hole and it’s worth pursuing.  Already the world is grinding towards a halt.  Mega-Corporations around the world are projecting losses, so can you imagine the torment many of the small, family-driven enterprises, are feeling right now? Many of them run on very thin margins, sensitive cash flows, and already are burdened with debt to service.  What happens when we see a wave of them shutting down and defaulting on their debt?  How are the financiers of the world going to put their client’s capital at risk when they are facing a tidal wave of disaster?  Can the storm be reversed or is the only way through it is to let it take the world to the bottom of the pit? 

Order in the Universe is disrupted.  Chaos occurs in governments.  Massive uprisings challenge power.  Governments around the world will do what they can to remain in power with the oldest trick in the books being used.  Governments will blame an outside group, a foreign entity to direct the energy of the people towards. Tensions boil to the edge.  War will be inevitable.  A small slip is all it takes to set the wheels of an unforgettable episode in the epic of mankind.

A sell-off in the markets right now is driven by the unconscious.  They all sense it telling them what will happen, but just can’t wrap the essence of it in deliverable concept. 

None of this will happen right away, rather over time, the reports will come out and you won’t even know what’s really going on because you are living in it as it happens.